The panel agreed that Cycle 25 will be average in intensity and similar to Cycle 24. E.g. So whereas scarcity and famines in the Ferrel Cell [30° to 60° N] can be caused by shorter growing seasons, freshets and erratic weather patterns: famines in the northern Hadley Cell [0° to 30° N] can be caused by major droughts. To claim otherwise only serves to make one an idiot or a liar. In the 4096 AIA 193A UV image it was a very active area with prominent magnetic field lines displaying complete coronal loops. I don’t know how grain marketing (as an example) is done in other countries, but US exports can quickly be rescinded and the products kept here at home. Snow acts like a sponge and absorbs rainwater. There are many points that you could do the same thing with. The swollen rivers overflowed many riverbanks. 2019 10 67.04 The Dalton minimum is interesting, but hardly an analog. 12 compares the IPCC forecast with the Akasofu (31) forecast (redharmonic) and with the simple and most reasonable working hypothesis of this paper (green line) that the “Golden Spike” temperature peak at about 2003 is the most recent peak in the millennial cycle. The Dalton times, and more specifically 1783-1835 had very strong volcanic activity. 29. Very different solar situation. 194-195. “Duration also matters.” – lgl The cycles that followed SC11-12, SC12-13, SC23-24, and SC5-6 were all low activity cycles. 56. Moreso since many of the climatic effects of the Dalton times were due to volcanic eruptions and you don’t even mention that. Each of these explosions produced solar proton events with a proton flux greater than 10,000 pfu @ >10 MeV. One of the advantages of a slide rule is that users were forced to round-off all calculations whether they understood the reasons for it or not. he made no rigorus prediction: “fairly similar” is not a quantified prediction. Solar activity during the solar minimum can also serve as a precursor for next cycle’s activity based on the same reasons. Likewise, solar fingerprints at this period might be manifested in the temperature- sensitive proxies and in the Qinghai precipitation record which show sig- nificant response lags of approximately 0–20 years relative to solar forcing. Although Earth’s atmosphere protects us on Earth’s surface from the effects of space weather storms, our human technologies can be affected by particularly strong storms. On an another subject: “Cold kills more than heat”: If the Sun were a mayfly, I might agree that our solar science is not so primitive. 2, No. all models predict the future. 318-330, doi: 10.1111/geoj.12191. Weather Events between the Winters of 1806/07 and 1814/15 that can be attributed to a Weak Solar Minimum. When we landed at La Guardia, there was a taxi slow-down, with one taxi arriving every 15 minutes or so. Also the bridges at Twyford, on the London road from Reading were broken down. The wind theory deals with the ability of high-level clouds to alter atmospheric circulation. For what it’s worth, by my reckoning 2020 and 2021 will be the main solar minimum years. here is Fig 12 In 1801, the great astronomer William Herschel observed a correlation between sunspots and wheat yields in England. “The sun is the natural source of heat and light for our planet. When custom is wrong it’s time to break it. and here is the top 20 of an ascending sort of these monthly averages since 2004: 2008 12 66.89 Dr. Svalgaard ==> I’ll let my granddaughter know to watch out for it and tell me what happens — I’ll might be in an Old Timer’s Home by then….even if it is only five years. I suggest we put aside controversy for a few moments and think about the implications for the future of our northern hemisphere if his prediction of lower temperatures is correct.
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