It used to be “well we’ll see if they ever land their rockets” then “we’ll see if they can reuse them” then “well congratulations, but we think we can compete with our rocket that ejects the engines, it’s way better than landing the whole thing”, so they have all along been betting on SpaceX failing and they’ve been losing that bet. *edit Tory, not Tony. Tory is doing all of these interviews to try to sell Vulcan. News SpaceX competitor ULA CEO still questions the economic value of reusable rockets Falcon Heavy Block 5 side boosters B1052 and B1053 are set to … “I certainly give credit to Elon Musk for sort of creating more excitement around space than we had a decade ago.”, But this is not a particularly friendly competition. Out-performing ULA’s current heavy lift booster, the three-core Delta 4, the Vulcan will be able to boost 80,000 pounds to low-Earth orbit or up to 35,900 pounds to the elliptical geosynchronous transfer orbits — GTOs — used by communications satellites bound for operational stations 22,300 above the equator. Don’t write ULA off yet, they clearly have good people, good leadership under Tory Bruno, and some fight left in them. But even if SpaceX experiences massive delays on the BFR and they don't get it flying before the Vulcan, they still would have had 5-8 years of total market cost dominance before ULA could even produce something that, again, might make them cost competitive. Yet when you consider that ULA's revenue appears to have enjoyed no growth at all over the past five years, and that its launch pace is slowing, I'm not at all certain ULA's value has increased over the last five years. Press question mark to learn the rest of the keyboard shortcuts, https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/963090657119055872. This program has received $12 billion and yet to have one test launch. Not much money left for R&D. They wouldn't ever say that publicly, of course, because it would become very hard to give contracts to a company with no future at a premium and to attract talent. This subreddit is not an official outlet for SpaceX information. Hawaii Emergency Management has interface of links which makes for easy mistakes » Analysis shows an estimated 2020 cost of $422 million per ULA launch if the Air Force selected United Launch Alliance to conduct them. That may sound extreme. ULA looks at what is already out, assumes nothing better will come along and then tries to be “competitive” in price in another 5-7 years time, hoping they’re right. So I think we each know what our prices are.”. The U.S. Air Force on Friday awarded rocket builders United Launch Alliance and Elon Musk's SpaceX contracts worth billions to launch national security missions. Each of the companies has been developing next-generation rockets, with the NSSL contracts a top priority. But if all goes as planned, SpaceX will launch 36 times. But I’m confident it’s going to create a large economy in space that doesn’t exist today. You see, Boeing and Lockheed's space businesses cooperate through a joint venture known as United Launch Alliance, or ULA. We’ve each made market forecasts, and if we’re right, our solution will be economically advantageous. If all six SRBs are used, liftoff thrust will be 3.8 million pounds, out performing the Delta 4. SpaceX has suffered one catastrophic in-flight failure in 50 Falcon 9 launches to date and one on-the-pad explosion. In any case, Bruno said the entry environment behind the heat shield is much more benign than what a Falcon 9 experiences with its tail-first propulsive descent and ULA engineers expect engine refurbishment to be a relatively straight forward affair. “Falcon 9s are going for about $97 million, $96.5 million, I think, is the most recent one. ULA has launched 76 Atlas 5 rockets and 36 more expensive Delta 4s without a single failure. The Vulcan will be marketed in a variety of configurations depending on payload requirements. Both companies hope to begin routine flights to the station next year. Interestingly enough, the ULA is poised to use Blue Origin’s BE-4 engines for the first stage of its expendable Vulcan rocket. ULA is staking its future on the Vulcan. SpaceX’s design calls for recovery of the entire rocket stage. It will also mean that SpaceX is worth about ten times the value of the space launch businesses of Boeing (NYSE:BA) and Lockheed Martin (NYSE:LMT) -- combined. We pipe them back up into the tank and that pressurizes the tanks. ACES solves those problems by using the internal combustion engines to accomplish all of those tasks over an extended period. Despite SpaceX being less than one-fourth of the cost of ULA, there is still criticism from some politicians and The Federalist that SpaceX is somehow wasting US taxpayer money. Image source: SpaceX. A similar technique was used to capture film canisters ejected from Corona spy satellites in the 1960s. A rocket’s reliability affects insurance rates and meeting a promised launch date means a commercial satellite will start generating revenue as soon as possible. The ULA CEO’s points about the possible lack of savings on reusable rockets put him in stark contrast with other noteworthy leaders in the space industry. That combines costs for launches using ULA’s large Delta rocket as well as its smaller, less expensive Atlas V rocket. Admittedly, ULA appears to have held its revenue steady throughout this period of declining launches. The U.S. military awarded ULA and SpaceX over $12 billion worth of launch contracts between 2012 and 2019. Two years ago the Air Force gave ULA, Northrop Grumman and Blue Origin development contract awards worth $967 million, $792 million and $500 million, respectively. ACES is an awesome product and Smart would have been great if they had done it five years earlier. From six launches in 2015, public records show that SpaceX increased its launch pace to eight flights in 2016, while ULA held steady at 12 flights. In 2017 SpaceX accelerated again to launch eight-een rockets, while ULA decelerated to just eight. I’m not sure what I think of that yet. In one sense, ULA is playing the tortoise to SpaceX’s hare. Hence Tory talking it up to try to get public opinion up. “And we’re using the power that comes off of that internal combustion engine to run a compressor and a heat exchanger … that’s putting energy back into the gases. I wouldn’t put it past BO to hike the price and throw ULA under the bus if it serves them. “We view (rocket reuse) as sort of a journey. A helicopter would then be positioned to catch the engine section midair while it makes its descent. National security missions are the most lucrative in the rocket business, with many worth well over $100 million per launch. “There is one funny thing about reusability. Featuring reusable engines and an advanced, long-lived upper stage, company executives expect the Vulcan to be a major contender in the increasingly fierce slugfest between SpaceX, ULA and other international launch providers. They just use two different hydrocarbon fuels as you know, one is kerosene and one is methane.”, Both engines “have a lot of additive manufacturing content, which takes that Russian technology and makes it a lot more manufacturable and really updates it to modern standards. Even if SpaceX bankrupts, Chinese are really serious about their space stuff, so someone else will have to come and make good stuff, fast.
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