On 10th of January an M3.0 earthquake occurred in Katla, it was located further north in the caldera compared to the earthquake this morning. Yes, that is why I have tried coupling that with visual observations such as the cracking, changes in the lake shore and historic background. I love VolcanoYT’s live streams but the peanut gallery is sometimes really hilarious. DOST-PHIVOLCS has stated that evacuation of up towards 1 million people might be necessary, but the result of the ongoing smaller evacuation has been so-so, indicating that a larger eruption might cause a high toll. what we think is happening, what we think will happening on the big island.
Alert Level 4 stayed, as a hazardous eruption remained possible within hours to days.
Depending on how much of the magma inside the reservoir will be reheated and made eruptible depends on how much hot fresh magma intrudes into it, the more that ends up above the eruptible limit, the worse the eruption would become. Okay now you got me scouring google earth….I think the place in the photo is here: Although Taal is one of the world's smallest active volcanoes only 311 metres high, it can be deadly. A volcano in the Philippines has been shuddering continuously with earthquakes and opening cracks in nearby roads as police blockaded at-risk towns over fears of a bigger eruption. The caldera did come into existence somehow, and Taal is in the 2018 Newhall/Self/Robock paper.
The website is still up and you can still pull up the charts for all their instruments but the data ends at 04:42. A 65-year-old woman has died of a heart attack while being moved out of Taal town in Batangas province. If I am not mistaken the deformation hasn’t ended. Please continue to respect all commenters and create constructive debates. The widespread uplift is probably caused by an evolving sill system. I agree that a dike or shape sill is likely. Using the fishing pens/shoreline at the start as landmarks, i believe it has been shot on the path that leads from the north shore to the crater rim. The reason for the discrepancy was not immediately clear. Is there anywhere a Picture from the possiblle flooding at the lake???? I would like your work to be widely seen and please forgive my pedantry but, unless there’s evidence that the Daily Mail calls every volcano a “supervolcano doom eruption”, I don’t think quotation marks should be used. … Now that the magma has already moved up but has not been ejected yet, the PHIVOLCS is looking at many possible scenarios. Correct, red (negative) values are towards west. From the seismic data we can surmise two things. Oles, 1995).”. Alert status, means there is now a "decreased tendency towards hazardous eruption. This kind of explains what some seem to be missing that there is a lot of magma already in place before this current intrusion. Earthquakes under Taal volcano during the past days. The earthquake this morning is the fourteenth earthquake larger than M2.0 in Katla caldera in the last 12 months.
So, no visible things happening but ongoing activity. The first confirmed casualty due to a road crash in Laguna was reported early Monday morning. Where is its source?
A long-dormant volcano, Mount Pinatubo, blew its top north of Manila in 1991 in one of the biggest volcanic eruptions of the 20th century, killing hundreds of people.
Written by Jenda Johnson, Earth Sciences Animated. That is in part because the most affected regions (Philippines, Indonesia) have volcano observatories which are on top of things and have proven their competence. Who cares about science or truth when papers need selling? The agency further said a total of 144 volcanic earthquakes had been recorded in the Taal region since January 12, and warned that it may lead to “further eruptive activity.”, However, the agency also said there was still continuous magmatic activity and frequent volcanic earthquakes, which indicated that a, "hazardous" eruption was still a possibility. Without that, hard to say. With the volcano they seem to be working on a 500 yr event which is allowing a good degree of leeway, but of course a Caldera forming event is possibly a 10000 year event, so likely to happen once in 150 lifetimes or less than 1 % chance in the rest of this century, no way of planning for that type of scenarios and living a sensible existence. Whereas a realistic scenario of course will include what is deemed likely. The volcano in Batangas province lies more than 40 miles south of the capital, Manila. Just don’t let the “Daily” tabloids find out… “Massive extinction-level eruption possible from “newly” discovered caldera in New Mexico!” I can see it now…, Phivolcs: Taal recharging for ‘powerful eruption’. That is in Agoncillo which is located in the southwest coast of Lake Taal and it is very localized because in San Nicolas which is just 2-3 km away the water has receded (uplift). Problem is that just short of Canadia, you have some of the more surely people on the planet. Most unfortunate, after all I actually like bees. Currently at a higher value than when it went pop on the 13th.
But, before that I need to straighten out two different things that have been circulating in the media, and on various internet sites. Many houses and farms have been damaged by volcanic ash since Taal, one of the country’s most active and deadliest volcanoes, began spewing lava and ash on Sunday. due to a road crash in Laguna was reported early Monday morning. Centerpoint is the erupting vent on Volcano Island. In my understanding, a “worst case” includes unlikely but not physically impossible events. CO2 is a silent danger and that mainly affects low lying areas. You can see that the lake has lowered a bit, https://www.gsi.go.jp/cais/topic200123-index-e.html.
https://www.gmanetwork.com/news/scitech/science/723250/taal-emits-less-sulfur-dioxide-low-frequency-earthquakes-continue/story/ It has more assumptions than the other way I estimated it but at least gives a more specific number and also falls within the reasonable range I gave earlier. The climate crisis is an example: if it is presented as unsolvably bad, people will ignore it. https://www.researchgate.net/publication/275149993_Geochemistry_of_Lavas_from_Taal_Volcano_Southwestern_Luzon_Philippines_Evidence_for_Multiple_Magma_Supply_Systems_and_Mantle_Source_Heterogeneity. It has been several years since they last predicted a Yellowstone catastrophe. Volcanologists have warned a devastating eruption could rain rocks and magma and set off a tsunami from the lake in which the volcano sits. More than 38,000 people have been relocated so far to over 200 evacuation centers, U.N. spokesman Stephane Dujarric said in New York.
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